The Price of Overpricing: Florida Keys Sellers Face More Competition
Key West listings rose from 171 to 256 and Big Pine from 36 to 80 in October. What more competition means for pricing and presentation.
By Kate Baldwin · · 5 min read
For the past few years, a lot of Florida Keys sellers could get away with an ambitious list price. October's numbers say that window is closing. There are far more homes for sale than a year ago, and roughly the same number of buyers closing on them.
I pulled the October numbers from FlexMLS on November 2. Here's what they say about competition, and what I think sellers should do about it.
The Numbers
Twice the Competition in Some Places
- Active residential listings
- 1,268
- Up from 730
- New listings in October
- 287
- Up from 191
- Residential closings
- 138
- 137 a year ago
Source: FlexMLS / MLS data. All residential property types, entire MLS. Oct. 1–Nov. 1, 2026 vs. Oct. 1–Nov. 1, 2025.
Across the MLS, active residential listings rose from 730 to 1,268 between October 2025 and October 2026. New listings rose from 191 to 287. Closings went from 137 to 138.
In other words, the supply side of the market grew dramatically and the demand side held steady. Put simply: in October, more than twice as many new residential listings came on the market as closed.
The increase shows up island by island:
| Area | October 2025 | October 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Key West | October 2025171 | October 2026: 256 | Change+50% |
| Big Pine Key | October 202536 | October 2026: 80 | Change+122% |
| Cudjoe Key | October 202530 | October 2026: 44 | Change+47% |
| Summerland Key | October 202515 | October 2026: 24 | Change+60% |
| Sugarloaf Key | October 202512 | October 2026: 19 | Change+58% |
| Marathon | October 2025109 | October 2026: 189 | Change+73% |
Source: FlexMLS / MLS data, all residential property types, Oct. 1–Nov. 1 of each year. Area = MLS city field. Prepared by Kate Baldwin on Nov. 2, 2026.
Big Pine Key more than doubled. Key West, the largest market, added 85 active listings. A buyer touring homes today simply has more to compare.
What It Means
What Competition Changes for Sellers
Pricing. Buyers now have more comparable homes to look at, and they will. A list price that would have been tested against two or three alternatives last year may now be tested against five or six. Homes that sold in October closed, on average, at about 94% of their list price, the same as last October. The homes that are selling are priced close to where buyers see value.
Presentation. When buyers scroll through more listings, the photographs and the first showing matter more. Clean, light, honest presentation, good photography and a home that's ready to show are not extras in this market. They're how a listing gets noticed.
Negotiation. More choice gives buyers more confidence to ask for things: price, repairs, closing timelines, credits. Sellers who know their numbers in advance negotiate from a much stronger position than those who are reacting.
Timing. The longer a listing sits, the more buyers notice. A price adjustment made early, based on real feedback, usually does more than several small reductions later.
One thing I'm deliberately not giving you here is a count of price reductions. FlexMLS's comparison report doesn't measure that, and I'd rather show you numbers I can stand behind than borrow an estimate.
For Buyers
The Other Side of the Same Numbers
More inventory is good news if you've been waiting for options. You have more time to compare, more room to ask questions and often more room to negotiate. Use it for due diligence: insurance, flood zone and, on land or redevelopment, building rights. (This week's stories on Citizens' 2027 flood requirement and Monroe County's building rights are good places to start.)
For the full October picture, including closings by island and the rolling 12-month numbers, read my October 2026 market report.
Thinking about selling? Start with a home valuation or read how I approach selling. Own on the water? See luxury and waterfront homes in the Keys.
Part of The Local Edit | Florida Keys Real Estate This Week
FAQ
Is inventory rising in the Florida Keys?
Yes. According to FlexMLS, active residential listings across the MLS rose from 730 in October 2025 to 1,268 in October 2026. Key West rose from 171 to 256, Big Pine Key from 36 to 80, and Marathon from 109 to 189.
Are Florida Keys homes selling below list price?
In October 2026, residential homes that sold closed at about 94% of their list price on average across the MLS, the same as October 2025.
Is it a buyer's market in the Florida Keys?
I don't like one-word labels for the Keys. Buyers have considerably more choice than a year ago, while closings have held steady. How that plays out depends on the island, the price range and the property.
Sources
- FlexMLS Year Over Year Comparison: residential (Active, Closed), entire MLS and by MLS city, October 1 – November 1, 2026 vs. October 1 – November 1, 2025
Source: FlexMLS / MLS data. Report prepared by Kate Baldwin on November 2, 2026. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Thinking about selling?
I'm happy to walk you through what's selling near you and what you're competing with. Call or text 305.240.7828, or ask me anything.
General information only, not legal, tax, insurance or financial advice. Market data is from the sources listed and covers the periods stated.
